Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 33,633
2 Florida 30,483
3 Mississippi 29,676
4 Arizona 28,439
5 Alabama 27,648
6 Georgia 25,673
7 South Carolina 24,587
8 Tennessee 24,294
9 Nevada 23,576
10 Texas 23,378
11 Iowa 22,994
12 New York 22,959
13 New Jersey 22,202
14 Arkansas 22,136
15 Rhode Island 21,505
16 District of Columbia 20,420
17 Illinois 20,405
18 Idaho 19,600
19 Nebraska 19,320
20 California 19,057
21 Delaware 18,963
22 North Dakota 18,956
23 Maryland 18,951
24 Massachusetts 17,924
25 South Dakota 17,898
26 Utah 17,524
27 North Carolina 17,289
28 Oklahoma 16,856
29 Kansas 16,626
30 Missouri 16,205
31 Indiana 15,511
32 Wisconsin 15,497
33 Virginia 15,291
34 Connecticut 15,172
35 Minnesota 14,593
36 Kentucky 13,083
37 New Mexico 12,604
38 Michigan 12,105
39 Ohio 11,471
40 Pennsylvania 11,461
41 Puerto Rico 11,359
42 Washington 10,784
43 Colorado 10,518
44 Alaska 9,377
45 Montana 8,134
46 Wyoming 7,255
47 Hawaii 7,250
48 Oregon 6,795
49 West Virginia 6,705
50 New Hampshire 5,569
51 Maine 3,541
52 Vermont 2,661

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 280
2 Nebraska 240
3 Iowa 212
4 Oklahoma 208
5 Missouri 203
6 South Dakota 201
7 Wisconsin 186
8 Alabama 176
9 Rhode Island 169
10 Georgia 167
11 Tennessee 164
12 Idaho 163
13 Louisiana 163
14 Kentucky 142
15 Texas 134
16 Mississippi 133
17 Illinois 129
18 Arkansas 118
19 Kansas 117
20 Utah 117
21 Virginia 115
22 Montana 110
23 Alaska 101
24 Florida 100
25 North Carolina 99
26 Wyoming 96
27 Indiana 94
28 Puerto Rico 94
29 California 87
30 Michigan 83
31 West Virginia 82
32 Hawaii 78
33 Ohio 78
34 Delaware 74
35 Washington 71
36 Connecticut 68
37 Maryland 65
38 South Carolina 63
39 Nevada 61
40 Minnesota 60
41 Pennsylvania 54
42 Arizona 47
43 District of Columbia 45
44 New Mexico 45
45 Colorado 43
46 New Jersey 38
47 Oregon 37
48 Massachusetts 36
49 New York 32
50 New Hampshire 23
51 Maine 14
52 Vermont 5

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,802
2 New York 1,676
3 Massachusetts 1,329
4 Connecticut 1,255
5 Louisiana 1,110
6 Rhode Island 1,007
7 Mississippi 892
8 District of Columbia 872
9 Arizona 724
10 Michigan 690
11 Illinois 669
12 Maryland 632
13 Delaware 629
14 Pennsylvania 616
15 South Carolina 577
16 Florida 573
17 Georgia 570
18 Indiana 506
19 Texas 482
20 Alabama 469
21 Nevada 464
22 New Mexico 389
23 Iowa 382
24 Ohio 372
25 California 356
26 Colorado 345
27 Minnesota 343
28 New Hampshire 319
29 Virginia 317
30 Arkansas 311
31 Missouri 288
32 North Carolina 287
33 Tennessee 287
34 Washington 272
35 Kentucky 240
36 Idaho 227
37 Nebraska 227
38 Oklahoma 221
39 North Dakota 213
40 Wisconsin 206
41 South Dakota 200
42 Kansas 171
43 Puerto Rico 160
44 West Virginia 143
45 Utah 134
46 Oregon 118
47 Montana 115
48 Maine 99
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 72
51 Hawaii 65
52 Alaska 53

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Florida 7
2 Mississippi 7
3 Tennessee 5
4 Georgia 4
5 Iowa 4
6 Louisiana 4
7 Nebraska 4
8 Nevada 4
9 South Carolina 4
10 Arkansas 3
11 Idaho 3
12 North Carolina 3
13 Puerto Rico 3
14 Rhode Island 3
15 Arizona 2
16 California 2
17 District of Columbia 2
18 Indiana 2
19 Kentucky 2
20 Michigan 2
21 Ohio 2
22 Texas 2
23 Alabama 1
24 Delaware 1
25 Hawaii 1
26 Illinois 1
27 Kansas 1
28 Maryland 1
29 Massachusetts 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Montana 1
33 New Mexico 1
34 North Dakota 1
35 Oklahoma 1
36 Oregon 1
37 Pennsylvania 1
38 South Dakota 1
39 Washington 1
40 West Virginia 1
41 Wisconsin 1
42 Alaska 0
43 Colorado 0
44 Connecticut 0
45 Maine 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 New Jersey 0
48 New York 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 144,718 1 99
Lafayette Florida 144,265 2 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 138,902 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 135,826 4 99
Lake Tennessee 121,579 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 38,880 168 94
Richland South Carolina 30,073 336 89
York South Carolina 16,357 1071 65
Orange California 16,248 1084 65
Pierce Washington 8,837 1952 37

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,730 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 3,554 5 99
Richland South Carolina 505 691 78
Davidson Tennessee 395 925 70
Orange California 337 1064 66
Pierce Washington 219 1445 54
York South Carolina 203 1514 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons